Previously, the two tracked a highly correlated path, but since late 2009 the divergence has been unusually wide, as the new cash has chased one of the few raging bulls, the S&P 500.

So what could be an outcome? Most likely, the pre-2009 correlation will reassert itself, which might insulate the ASX/200 from further declines, or provide a tailwind in the case of a further advance.