Past and present

But look at what the future holds

By 2050, four of the 5 largest economies in the world will be in our region
– China, India, Japan, and Indonesia.

1. A broadening recovery
2. Developed market divergence lives on
3. The new oil order
4. Low inflation and the fight against it
5. The dollar bull market
6. Fed: Later, steeper, further, calmer
7. China’s bumpy downshift continues
8. Emerging Markets: More relief, more polarisation
9. The low-volatility world and its challenges
10. Living in a low-return world

Source: Goldman Sachs

One of the things that has consistently brought a smile to my face throughout 2014 is how wrong Wall Street economists have been on interest rates this entire year. The markets who are, by definition, forward-looking nailed the bond trade coming into the year. Fed Fund Futures were suggesting rates would stay down this year while the backward-looking economists all said rates would rise. In fact, 67 of 67 Wall Street economists polled said rates in the US would rise this year so it was time to sell bonds. In actuality, 2014 turned out to be one of the best years in the history of the US Bond Market and interest rates fell from 3% to 2% last month before bouncing a bit (in 10yr Yields).