‘The market’s current profile does not point to an imminent bear market in stocks. However, anyone who studies markets knows strong bull markets are inevitably followed by principal-destroying bear markets. When the market peaks, no one rings a bell; some investors will be prepared, some will not.’ Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital Management
‘Success depends on previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure’. CONFUCIOUS
‘We all must suffer one of two things; the pain of discipline or the pain of regret’ JIM ROHN
It’s now been about two years since the S&P 500 has seen a correction of at least 10%. In that time we’ve had roughly 9 million pundits (give or take) predict that we’re overdue for one.
A smaller subset serial forecasters have also been extremely bearish on the market’s prospects for the entire bull market run that began in early 2009. The opportunity cost of being out of the market has only continued to grow with every move higher.
I thought it would be a useful exercise to see how far stocks would have to drop from current levels to get back to the year end closing prices for the S&P 500 for those that have been calling for a crash every single year:
Remember the magnitude of these losses when the inevitable correction does happen and the perma-bear pundits take an undeserved victory lap. Saying stocks will go down is easy (they will). Timing those losses with any precision is another matter entirely, especially if you’ve been bearish for a number of years and confirmation bias takes over.