Successful trading is about probabilities and risk management

Trades don’t all kick off like Mantra (MTR) which came up as a model stock pick on the 2/10/17 (Entry $3.19) just before the bid which quickly jumped the price to $3.80 (10/10/17) and our new subscribers were happy enough to have begun their Stockradar membership that way. The reality is that trading is about […]

The Kelly Criterion – Effective risk management technique

$25 kitty. You bet on the flip of a coin for 30 minutes. Coin is biased with a 60% probability of coming up heads You can bet as much as you like on each flip You will be given a cheque for however much is left in your account at the end of your 30 […]

Trading Tactics

Our portfolio service is designed to attract patient capital that doesn’t get troubled by broader market conditions. Recently I discussed the benefits of weekly data (see Stockradar blog – The primary motivation for using the weekly time frame is for perspective), which suits the majority of my SMSF members as it is employed to avoid […]

The primary motivation for using the weekly time frame is for perspective and to help you catch the big trends.

Ride ‘em cowboy One of key premises we work with at Stockradar is the weekly time frame. It helps you filter out the daily ‘noise’ and allows you to ride those big trends with confidence. Our natural inclination when profits are growing fast is to ‘take the money and run’, or use a shorter-term chart […]

Complacency is our enemy

There is no doubt the ETF wave of popularity is creating a self-perpetuating dangerous and ‘unknown’ quantity with repercussions yet to be fully understood or played out. In my blog over recent months I refer to the many issues surrounding this ETF phenomenon taking hold of investors. ‘Passive investing is in danger of devouring capitalism’ […]

How to boost your portfolio returns

‘Holding the hot stocks and avoiding the dogs is the path to success when trading the stock market’. This may seem an obvious statement but most investors find this difficult to achieve. Investors often try too hard when there are often some very simple common sense answers right in front of us. There is always […]

The Trend Intensity Rating Indicator

Market sentiment plays a critical role in assessing share price movements. Stockradar delivers a consistent measurement of market sentiment using its unique tool, the Trend Intensity Indicator. The Trend Intensity Indicator combines and weighs four simple tools: trend, volume, moving averages and price momentum. This generates an invaluable benchmark that highlights only those stocks with compelling […]

…a lot of us seem convinced that we can pretend to be investors. That’s dangerous.

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Do you remember playing pretend when you were little? Maybe you were a superhero, a dinosaur or a princess. It’s normal when you’re little, and it’s usually harmless. Most children know the difference between pretending to be a superhero and jumping off the roof thinking they can fly.

But adults often forget.

For instance, we may stop pretending to be superheroes, but a lot of us seem convinced that we can pretend to be investors. That’s dangerous.

  1. Pretend investors think that financial pornography is real, so the ticker tape scrolling across the television screen all day represents actionable information.Real investors know it might be entertaining, like going to the circus, but they would never make a decision because of it.
  1. Pretend investors think it makes perfect sense to change their investments based on what they hear in the news: There’s a new president, so act! He doesn’t like the Federal Reserve, so trade! He criticized bankers, so buy bank stocks!Real investors know that they make changes to their investments based on what happens in their own lives. If their goals change or there is a fundamental change in their financial situation, then they consider an alteration. But they would never make a change based on someone yelling “buy” or “sell” on television.
  1. Pretend investors think they need to monitor their investments all the time. The little supercomputer they carry around in their pockets makes it so easy.Real investors know that it takes a long time for a tree to grow, and it will not help to dig it up to see if the roots are still there. The same rule applies to investments. And because watching things get big slowly is not very exciting, real investors tend not to talk about that tree all that much.
  1. Pretend investors talk about their investments — a lot. They say things like, “I’m long this, or short that.” They use jargon that often does not make sense, though it sounds kind of impressive if you don’t listen too closely. Sometimes they cheer for things like increased consumer spending, higher unemployment, or in some cases, war.Real investors understand the difference between the global economy and their personal economy and choose to focus on the latter.
  1. Pretend investors will worry endlessly about the news in some far-off part of the world or the impact on their portfolio.Real investors focus on the things they can control, like saving a bit more next year, keeping their investment costs low, not paying fees unless it’s necessary and managing their behavior by not buying high and selling again when prices are low.
  1. Pretend investors complain endlessly about volatility in the market and external actions that have short-term impact on the big bets they have made on individual stocks.Real investors have enjoyed the benefits of a market that is up more than 180 percent in the last 20 years.

So ask yourself this: Isn’t it finally time to stop pretending now?

SOURCE: BEHAVIOUR GAP

The ‘trade’ ingredients that make up a successful trader.

An excellent article in the AFR today on page 13, ‘The second life of our star trader (12/9/16), on one successful trader ‘doing it his way” . It has always intrigued my to read of the successes of other traders. Often the template is the similar but usually they will have one unique defining point of difference.

The key “template” takeaways:

  1. Allocate capital
    – Stockradar’s Portfolio process allocates capital evenly and often with a cash component
  2. Work with probabilities for safety
    – Stockradar uses three key ‘tried and tested’ trade setups that are focused on probabilities of success
  3. Size trade with commensurate rewards
    – Stockradar carefully manages the risk exposure in each trade to generate the optimum return
  4. Manage risk in totality
    – Stockradar does this on a stock specific trade basis and also on a ‘totality’ of portfolio weighting process.

For those of you that haven’t yet you can always take a free trial and see how we really work and generate our absolute return profile.