Economists – the bond gurus

bond rates 2014

One of the things that has consistently brought a smile to my face throughout 2014 is how wrong Wall Street economists have been on interest rates this entire year. The markets who are, by definition, forward-looking nailed the bond trade coming into the year. Fed Fund Futures were suggesting rates would stay down this year while the backward-looking economists all said rates would rise. In fact, 67 of 67 Wall Street economists polled said rates in the US would rise this year so it was time to sell bonds. In actuality, 2014 turned out to be one of the best years in the history of the US Bond Market and interest rates fell from 3% to 2% last month before bouncing a bit (in 10yr Yields).

 

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